Bayesian Statistics

Bayesian statistics is a framework for understanding uncertainty and making decisions based on evidence. It combines prior beliefs (what we know before seeing new data) with evidence (new information) to update our beliefs. In terms of confirmation theory, it helps to refine our hypotheses by mathematically adjusting the likelihood of them being true, given the data we gather. Instead of just looking at how likely data would occur under a hypothesis (like in traditional statistics), it calculates how our confidence in that hypothesis should change as we learn more. This makes it a powerful tool for decision-making and inference.