Bayesian Updating

Bayesian updating is a statistical method used to revise the probability of a belief or hypothesis as new evidence is acquired. Imagine you think it will rain tomorrow based on weather forecasts (your prior belief). If the forecast updates with new data showing clearer skies, you adjust your belief accordingly—this is your posterior belief. Essentially, Bayesian updating allows you to refine your understanding by combining your prior knowledge with new information, continuously improving your predictions or beliefs based on the most current evidence.