Prior Probability

Prior probability refers to the initial estimation of how likely a hypothesis or event is before considering new evidence. It’s the starting assumption based on existing knowledge or experience. For example, if you're guessing whether it will rain today, your prior probability might be based on the usual rainy days in your area during that season. As new information becomes available, you can update this estimate. Prior probability provides a foundation for making informed decisions, especially in statistical reasoning and Bayesian analysis, by quantifying initial beliefs before analyzing current data.