Bayesian Confirmation Theory

Bayesian Confirmation Theory is a mathematical approach to understanding how evidence supports or refutes beliefs. It uses Bayes' theorem to update the probability of a hypothesis being true based on new evidence. Essentially, when we encounter new information, we adjust our beliefs proportionally—if the evidence makes the hypothesis more likely, we increase our confidence in it; if it makes it less likely, we decrease our confidence. This method helps us make more rational decisions by quantifying how much our beliefs change in light of new facts, leading to clearer reasoning in everyday situations and scientific inquiry.