Subjective Probability

Subjective probability refers to an individual's personal assessment of the likelihood that a particular event will occur. It is based on personal judgment, experience, and information, rather than on purely statistical data. For example, a weather enthusiast might feel there's a 70% chance of rain tomorrow based on their understanding and observations, even if there’s no formal forecast. This contrasts with objective probability, which is derived from mathematical analysis of data. Subjective probability is useful in decision-making when empirical data is limited or uncertain, allowing people to incorporate their expertise and intuition into their predictions.