Calibration curves

A calibration curve is a graphical tool used to evaluate how well a model or predictor performs compared to actual outcomes. In simple terms, it compares predicted probabilities (like a chance of rain) against actual results (whether it actually rained). If the predictions are accurate, the curve will closely follow a straight diagonal line from the bottom left to the top right. Deviations from this line indicate areas where the predictions are either too optimistic or too pessimistic, helping to assess the reliability of the model's predictions and improve future forecasts.