the Turkey problem

The Turkey problem, also known as the "Turkey fallacy," highlights the danger of relying on past experiences to predict future outcomes. It stems from a hypothetical scenario where a turkey is fed daily by a farmer. Each day, the turkey believes it will always be fed, until the day before Thanksgiving when it is slaughtered. This illustrates that just because something has consistently happened before, it does not guarantee it will happen again. It serves as a reminder to critically assess risks and not be complacent based on historical patterns alone, especially in uncertain situations.