Superforecasting

Superforecasting refers to the practice of making highly accurate predictions about future events, often based on a combination of data analysis, critical thinking, and an understanding of human behavior. It gained prominence from studies by Philip Tetlock, who found that some individuals consistently outperformed others in forecasting. Superforecasters tend to break complex problems into manageable parts, consider multiple viewpoints, update their beliefs as new information emerges, and remain open-minded. This approach applies not only in areas like politics and economics but also in everyday decision-making, helping people make better-informed predictions and choices.