Philip Tetlock

Philip Tetlock is a psychologist and professor known for his work on forecasting and decision-making. He conducted extensive research on how experts predict future events, revealing that many often fail to make accurate predictions despite their credentials. Tetlock introduced the concept of "superforecasters," individuals who consistently make better predictions by using analytical thinking, being open-minded, and updating their beliefs based on new information. His work emphasizes the importance of tracking the accuracy of forecasts and the potential for improving our judgment and decision-making skills through practice and critical evaluation.