Simon-Ehrlich wager

The Simon-Ehrlich wager was a bet made in 1980 between economist Julian Simon and environmentalist Paul Ehrlich. Simon argued that human innovation would lead to resource abundance, while Ehrlich claimed that environmental limits would lead to scarcity. They agreed that Simon would bet on the price of five metals, like copper and tin, over a decade. If the prices fell, Simon would win; if they rose, Ehrlich would win. By 1990, the prices dropped, supporting Simon’s view that innovation can overcome resource limits. The wager highlighted the debate over resource scarcity versus human ingenuity and economic growth.