The Science of Judgement and Decision Making (by Philip E. Tetlock)

"The Science of Judgment and Decision Making" by Philip E. Tetlock explores how people make predictions and assess risks. It highlights that even experts often overestimate their certainty, and that good decision-making involves humility, openness to new information, and self-awareness. Tetlock emphasizes the importance of critical thinking, avoiding biases, and constantly updating beliefs based on evidence. The book encourages developing a balanced mindset—being cautious with predictions while remaining adaptable—ultimately improving our ability to make smarter, more informed choices in complex, uncertain situations.