the Ludic fallacy

The Ludic fallacy is the mistake of assuming that real-world situations, especially complex or unpredictable ones, can be fully understood or predicted using simplified models or assumptions. It likens risk and uncertainty to controlled games or experiments, which don't capture the messiness, randomness, and surprises of real life. This fallacy can lead to underestimating risks or making overly confident decisions because we believe reality behaves like our simplified models, ignoring its inherent unpredictability and complexity.