Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC Curve)

A Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve is a graph that evaluates how well a diagnostic test or model distinguishes between two outcomes, such as disease presence or absence. It plots the true positive rate (sensitivity) against the false positive rate (1-specificity) at various thresholds. The curve helps assess the trade-off between detecting actual positives and avoiding false alarms. A model with better discrimination will have a curve that bows closer to the top-left corner, and the area under the curve (AUC) quantifies overall performance, with 1.0 indicating perfect accuracy and 0.5 meaning no better than random guessing.