Racecourse Paradox

The Racecourse Paradox describes a situation often encountered in probability and statistics, particularly relating to decision-making. Imagine two scenarios where a runner has a 70% chance of winning a race under certain conditions. However, if the race is moved to a different track that the runner is less familiar with, you might intuitively think the winning chances should drop even lower. The paradox lies in the fact that while conditions can change, our perception of risk and outcomes can also shift in unexpected ways, leading to confusion about actual probabilities and the impact of context on decision-making.