Judgments Under Uncertainty

Judgments under uncertainty involve making decisions or forming beliefs when complete information isn't available. Instead of clear facts, we rely on incomplete data, assumptions, or probabilities, which means there's always some level of doubt or risk. For example, predicting the weather or estimating market trends requires assessing uncertain information. These judgments are influenced by biases, heuristics, and previous experiences, affecting their accuracy. Recognizing the limits of certainty helps in making more informed, cautious choices, understanding that not all outcomes can be predicted perfectly.