Bayesian Forecasting

Bayesian forecasting is a method of predicting future events by updating existing beliefs with new information. It starts with an initial understanding, called a prior, about what might happen. When new data becomes available, the method adjusts this belief to a more informed prediction, called a posterior. This process combines prior knowledge and recent evidence to make more accurate forecasts. It's widely used in fields like finance, weather, and medicine, allowing for flexible, data-driven updates as situations evolve. Essentially, Bayesian forecasting continuously refines predictions by learning from new information.