Bayesian conditioning

Bayesian conditioning is a way to update our beliefs based on new evidence. Imagine you have a guess about the weather being sunny. If you hear a weather report predicting sun, you might feel more confident. If it later clouds over, you adjust your belief about how likely it is to be sunny. This method uses probability: you start with an initial belief (prior probability) and, as you gather new information (likelihood), you refine your belief (posterior probability). It’s a systematic approach to making better decisions as more data becomes available.