Tversky's "Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases"

Tversky’s "Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases" explores how people often rely on mental shortcuts, called heuristics, to make decisions quickly when faced with uncertainty. While these shortcuts can be helpful, they sometimes lead to systematic errors, or biases. For example, people might overestimate the likelihood of vivid events or rely on easily recalled examples, which skews their judgment. The work emphasizes that human reasoning is influenced by these patterns, affecting how we perceive risks, probabilities, and make choices, often deviating from statistically or logically optimal outcomes.