Turchin’s Theory of Secular Cycles

Turchin’s Theory of Secular Cycles suggests that societies go through long-term patterns of growth and decline driven by demographic, economic, and social factors. These cycles typically span 150-300 years, beginning with periods of stability and population growth. Over time, inequality and social unrest increase, leading to crises and decline. Afterward, societies often experience renewed stability and renewal. The theory emphasizes that these cycles result from complex interactions between population dynamics, economic stress, and social cohesion, highlighting that societal changes follow predictable, long-term patterns rather than random events.