The Wisdom of Crowds (Surowiecki)

The Wisdom of Crowds, by James Surowiecki, suggests that collective judgments or decisions of a diverse group often outperform those of individuals, even experts. This principle relies on three key factors: diversity of perspectives, independence of members’ opinions, and decentralized knowledge. When these conditions are met, the group's aggregated input tends to be more accurate, balanced, and innovative, because it minimizes individual biases and leverages a wider range of information. This concept explains why crowds can sometimes solve problems or predict outcomes better than lone experts, especially in complex or uncertain situations.