The Newcomb Model

The Newcomb Model explores the idea of predicting human behavior through a highly accurate predictor, often called "the Predictor." Imagine a scenario where you're faced with two boxes: one transparent containing a visible reward, and one opaque that may contain a larger reward. The Predictor has already forecasted your choice: if it predicted you'd take only the opaque box, both boxes contain their rewards; if it predicted you'd take both, the opaque is empty. This model raises questions about free will and whether your choices are truly independent, illustrating complex interactions between prediction, decision-making, and causality.