the narrative fallacy

The narrative fallacy is the tendency to create stories or explanations that make sense of past events, often oversimplifying or adding coherence where there wasn’t any. Humans prefer to see patterns and causality, so we tend to craft narratives that fit what happened, even if those stories didn't actually determine the outcome. This can lead to oversights, as we ignore randomness or other factors, and may cause us to believe in false cause-and-effect relationships. Essentially, it’s our mind’s way of making sense of complexity, but it can also distort reality and lead to mistaken conclusions.