The Futures Wheel

The Futures Wheel is a method used to explore the potential consequences of a specific future event or trend. It starts with a central change or development and then maps out the likely direct impacts (first-order effects). From those, it identifies subsequent ripple effects (second-order and beyond). This visual technique helps organizations and individuals understand possible opportunities and challenges linked to future scenarios, aiding in strategic planning and decision-making. For example, considering the rise of electric vehicles, the wheel might explore impacts on oil industries, job markets, infrastructure needs, and environmental quality.