The Elm and the Expert

"The Elm and the Expert" is a thought experiment illustrating how decision-making can be influenced by biases. Imagine an expert predicting a system's future, but their judgment is often swayed by their prior beliefs or preferences—like an elm tree favoring certain outcomes. This example shows that even knowledgeable experts can be biased, and their forecasts may reflect their inclinations rather than objective data. It highlights the importance of understanding and accounting for biases in expert advice and decision-making processes to improve accuracy and fairness.