Taleb's Heuristic

Taleb's Heuristic suggests that human decision-making should focus on scenarios with limited downside risk and significant upside potential, emphasizing robustness to unexpected events (black swans). Instead of trying to predict rare, high-impact events, it advocates for strategies that are "antifragile," benefiting from volatility and uncertainty. In practice, this means avoiding overly complex or fragile plans, and instead favoring simple, resilient systems that can withstand surprises, allowing you to thrive amidst unpredictability rather than be harmed by it.