probabilistic forecasting

Probabilistic forecasting involves predicting future events by providing a range of possible outcomes along with their likelihoods, rather than a single fixed result. Instead of saying, "It will be 70°F tomorrow," it expresses that there is a certain chance of different temperatures, such as a 40% chance of 68-70°F, and a 20% chance of 71-73°F. This approach helps better understand uncertainty and risk, giving decision-makers a fuller picture of possible scenarios. It is commonly used in weather prediction, finance, and other fields where outcomes are uncertain.