Judgmental Forecasting

Judgmental forecasting is a method where experts or individuals make predictions about future events based on their knowledge, experience, and intuition, rather than relying solely on historical data or mathematical models. It involves subjective judgment to estimate future trends or outcomes, often used when data is limited or when unexpected factors are likely to influence the future. Examples include industry forecasts, policy decisions, and business planning. While it can provide valuable insights, it also depends on the accuracy of the experts’ opinions and may be influenced by biases.