Judgement Under Uncertainty (paper)

"Judgment Under Uncertainty" is a scientific paper by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky that examines how people make decisions when they lack complete information. It explores common cognitive biases and mental shortcuts—called heuristics—that influence judgment, often leading to errors. The paper highlights how our minds tend to rely on patterns, past experiences, and intuitive thinking rather than thorough analysis, especially under uncertainty. Understanding these biases helps improve decision-making, both individually and in organizations, by recognizing tendencies such as overconfidence, anchoring, and framing effects that distort rational choice.