Jeffrey Factor

The Jeffrey Factor, named after philosopher Richard Jeffrey, refers to the idea that our confidence in a belief should align with the actual likelihood of that belief being correct. In other words, if you believe something with a certain degree of certainty, your confidence should match how probable it is that you're right. This concept emphasizes that our judgments about probabilities should be coherent and consistent, helping us make better decisions by properly calibrating our belief levels to real-world evidence. It encourages critical assessment of how confidently we hold our beliefs relative to their actual correctness.