Hot Hand Fallacy

The Hot Hand Fallacy is the mistaken belief that a person who has experienced success or a string of positive outcomes is more likely to continue succeeding in the near future. For example, thinking a basketball player will make more shots after several successful ones, even when each shot is independent of previous ones. In reality, past successes do not influence future chances in many situations; outcomes are often random. The fallacy causes people to believe in streaks or “hot hands” where none actually exist, leading to biased judgments and decisions based on perceived patterns.