fiducial inference

Fiducial inference is a statistical method used to estimate unknown parameters (like averages or rates) from data without relying heavily on prior beliefs, as in Bayesian methods. It aims to directly derive a probability statement about the parameter based on observed data, essentially quantifying the uncertainty about the parameter's true value. Think of it as creating a “fiduciary” link between the data and the parameter, giving a range or interval where the parameter likely lies, with a specified level of confidence, based solely on the data itself.