Curveball (cognitive bias)

The Curveball bias occurs when individuals overestimate the likelihood of rare or unexpected events, especially after experiencing or hearing about them. Essentially, a surprising or unusual event can seem more probable than it truly is, because it captures our attention and memory more vividly. This bias can lead us to overreact to unlikely occurrences or make poor predictions based on recent unusual experiences, even when the actual chance of such events remains very low. It reflects how our perception of risk is influenced by the novelty or surprise factor, rather than actual statistical likelihood.