Bayesian Reliability

Bayesian reliability is a way to estimate the likelihood that a system or component will continue to function over time, based on both prior knowledge and new data. It uses probabilities to update our beliefs as we gather more information, allowing for more accurate predictions. Essentially, it starts with an initial assumption (prior) about reliability and adjusts this as actual test results or real-world usage data become available. This approach helps engineers make better decisions about maintenance, safety, and lifespan by continuously refining reliability estimates with evidence.