Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC)

The Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) is a statistical tool used to compare different models and determine which best explains data while accounting for complexity. It balances fit quality—how well a model matches the data—against simplicity—avoiding overly complicated models that may just be fitting noise. Lower BIC values indicate a preferable model, meaning it explains the data well without unnecessary complexity. Think of it as a way to choose the most efficient model, much like selecting the best balance between detail and simplicity when explaining a concept.