actuarial risk assessment

Actuarial risk assessment involves using statistical data and mathematical models to evaluate the likelihood of future events, such as criminal behavior or financial outcomes. It combines historical information—like past behavior or demographic factors—to estimate the probability of a specific risk occurring. This method helps professionals make informed decisions, such as in criminal justice or insurance, by providing an evidence-based prediction of potential risks. It aims for objectivity and consistency, reducing guesswork, and ensuring that assessments are grounded in real-world data.