Abraham Wald

Abraham Wald was a statistician who contributed to decision-making under uncertainty. During World War II, he analyzed how to strengthen military planes by studying where they were most often hit. Surprisingly, he suggested reinforcing areas with fewer hits, reasoning that planes that returned damaged were hit in less vital spots, while critical areas where hits would cause loss were less represented among the damaged planes. This insight, known as survivorship bias, helps us understand that sometimes, what we see isn’t the whole story, and we need to consider what’s missing to make better decisions and avoid errors.